This is good news for Democrats, right?

Enik Rising ran an interesting post almost a year ago on the relationship between unemployment and midterm elections, which, with next Tuesday looming, has resurfaced again on the interwebs.

The Enik Rising post presents three graphs relating outcomes in midterm elections (the number of House seats gained or lost by the party holding the presidency at the time of the election) and three economic variables.

The first graph shows no connection between the midterm outcome and the level of unemployment:

Change in House seats against unemployment rate

Source: Enik Rising, 2009.

The second graph similarly shows no relationship between midterm outcomes and the change in the unemployment rate:

Change in House seats against change in unemployment rate

Source: Enik Rising, 2009.

So, the Democrats are home free then? Well, not quite. Apparently there is a strong relationship between midterm outcomes and the growth rate in real disposable income in the run up to election:

Change in House seats against change in real disposable income

Source: Enik Rising, 2009.

The worst beating ever was Clinton in 1994, when real disposable income was growing 1-2 percent. Between the second quarter of 2009 and the second quarter of 2010 (the most recent data available), real disposable personal income grew just 0.3 percent (about where Reagan was in 1982).

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